Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Netherlands January 2018

Image result for VW e-Golf netherlands

VW e-Golf Shines

January had 1.620 registrations (2.7% share), up 126% regarding the same period last year, after several months recovering from the PHEV addiction, the market is starting to get into cruise speed, with both technologies growing (BEVs +182%, PHEVs +16%). 

Last month it was all about the VW e-Golf, with the German model shattering its previous record, by registering 506 units. Also important is the fact that 23% of all VW Golf sales came from the BEV version. Considering the VW best seller is production constrained and the automaker promised to double the output, how high can the e-Golf go? 900 units/month? More?

Looking elsewhere, positive month also for the Hyundai Ioniq BEV and Opel Ampera-e(!), with both models breaking also their personal bests, and securing a podium seat in the first step of the 2018 race.

The BMW i3 also had a promising start, helped by the facelift, the German hot hatch scored 131 units (One of them was a Rex), being its best result in 25 months.

Surprising results for the two best selling PHEVs, with the Volvo XC60 PHEV registering 87 units, the best sales result for a plug-in hybrid ever since they lost the company car incentives, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV had 59 sales, its best result in four years.

Final mention to the Peugeot Partner Tepee EV, that registered 9 units in January, allowing it a Top 20 presence, this says a lot about PSA state of mind, on the face of the current fast electrification process, they were caught with their pants down and while their new Plug-ins do not arrive in 2019/20, they are stuck between a rock (Being ripped off by GM with the Ampera-e) and a hard place (Selling short range, niche BEVs).

Not a good place to be, especially considering they were leaders on the Second Age of the Electric Car...

1 VW e-Golf 506 506 31
2 Hyundai Ioniq Electric 320 320 20
3 Opel Ampera-e 154 154 10
4 BMW i3 131 131 8
5 Volvo XC60 PHEV 87 87 5
6 Renault Zoe 75 75 5
7 Porsche Panamera PHEV 59 59 4
8 Tesla Model S 57 57 4
9 Nissan Leaf 24 24 1
10 Tesla Model X 20 20 1
10 Volvo XC90 PHEV 19 19 1
12 Volvo S/V90 PHEV 13 13 1
12 Toyota Prius PHEV 13 13 1
12 Mini Countryman PHEV 13 13 1
15 BMW 530e 11 11 1
16 VW e-Up! 9 9 1
16 Smart Forfour ED 9 9 1
16 Peugeot Partner Tepee EV 9 9 1
16 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 9 9 1
20 Mercedes GLC350e 8 8 1
Others 74 74 4
TOTAL 1620 1620 100

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Jan. Sales  
Kia Niro HEV
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
Volkswagen e-Golf
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
Hyundai Ioniq Electric

If we add regular hybrids to plug-ins, the Kia Niro is confirming to be a consistent leader, winning January with relative ease, followed by two plug-ins (VW e-Golf and Hyundai Ioniq BEV) and two Toyota Hybrids in the ranking.

Are the Japanese brand hybrids losing momentum?

Monday, February 19, 2018

Norway January 2018 (Updated)

Image result for i3 vs zoe vs egolf

BEVs to Power

After Sweden, we cross to the neighboring Norway, the template for EV adoption, where something unusual has happened this January, with the Norwegian mainstream market dropping 30%, despite no apparent economic disruption.

To understand this number, we have to look at the overall fuels share, in January, despite dropping 7% YoY, BEVs registered a record 23% share, staying only behind regular gas cars (26% share) as the best selling fuel source, but PHEVs stumbled 40% in sales, to just 17% share, with the announced demise of diesel-powered cars continuing, scoring only 20% share (Down from 24%, a year ago), placing diesel behind BEVs, with the remainder (14%) going to regular HEVs, which have fell in line with the market.

Also interesting to notice, is that a sizeable 890 second hand EVs were imported last month, a 80% jump YoY, with hundreds of Nissan Leaf and Kia Soul EV, among others, being imported from abroad, which could help explaining the current registration slowdown. 

What does this all mean? Basically, people are either waiting for new BEVs to arrive (Leaf II, Model 3, Kona BEV, etc) or in line to get a BEV from the current best-sellers (i3, e-Golf, Zoe), with the remaining models, including PHEVs, suffering with the current seismic changes. Do not be surprised if in a few months BEVs become the best selling fuel source...

Looking at the current crop of Best Sellers, there is a significant difference between the podium bearers and the Fourth Placed Hyundai Ioniq Electric, which probably has more to do with the chronic production constraints of the Korean model, than lack of demand.

In the remaining 16 positions, we see a tide of PHEVs, with only the quirky #9 Kia Soul EV and both Teslas belonging to the BEV team, making it only seven BEVs in the Top 20, when this technology outsold PHEVs by 3 to 2. The reason for this paradox? BEV sales are more concentrated, as there are less models to choose and even less if we restrict the choice to appealing nameplates, reading from this Top 20, they are just 4 models (The Top 4), with the Kia Soul EV satisfying a specific customer niche (City drivers with utility high on their priority list) and the Teslas going after wealthier wallets.

Looking elsewhere, January is usually a slow selling month, but nevertheless the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins scored 145 units, allowing it a Sixth Place, allowing it even to outsell the current Volvo shining star, the XC60 PHEV (135 units).
In the manufacturers ranking, last year winner Volkswagen (22%) is in Second Place, surpassed by BMW (24%), with the Third Spot going to Volvo, with 12%.

BMW i361461417
VW e-Golf51451414
Renault Zoe3343349
4Hyundai Ioniq BEV1701705
BMW 225xe Active Tourer1541544
6Volvo S/V90 PHEV1451454
7VW Passat GTE1411414
8Volvo XC60 PHEV1351354
9Kia Soul EV1191193
10VW Golf GTE1151153
11Tesla Model S1101103
12Tesla Model X1051053
12Mitsu. Outlander PHEV1051053
14Kia Niro PHEV1031033
15Kia Optima PHEV63632
16Audi A3 e-Tron62622
16Mercedes GLC350e62622
18Mini Countryman PHEV61612
19Volvo V60 PHEV58582
20Volvo XC90 PHEV57572

Sources: Ofvas and Elbil

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

1BMW i3614
2VW e-Golf514
3Renault Zoe334
4Toyota Yaris319
Toyota Auris
Toyota RAV4
Toyota C-HR
Hyundai Ioniq BEV
Peugeot 3008
Peugeot 5008
Ford Fiesta

With 40% PEV share, the general market is showing the electric road in unstoppable, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have four HEVs, four BEVs, with no PHEVs in sight.

It seems plug-in hybrids are suffering more than expected from the current BEV-fever, which might prove that their role as stop-gap technology into full EV is being proven.
This month the Toyota hybrids had a major comeback, with all four of them joining the Top 10, while at the bottom we see fresh faces, with the Ford Fiesta(?!?), and the Peugeot Crossovers climbing in the Best Sellers train.
After September having been the first "NO ICE" Top 10 month ever, will we see the same happening in March? I wouldn't bet against it.